Imagine a decision has failed, then write down the three likeliest reasons.
The observation
For a decision that matters, write the conditions before writing the conclusion. Name the evidence, constraints, reversibility, and the date when the choice should be reviewed.
A small premortem is less a rule than a useful test: does the arrangement make the next encounter clearer?
In practice
When uncertainty is high, prefer a small step that produces information while keeping options open. A short premortem can reveal risks that enthusiasm has hidden.
A small trial
Apply the idea to one ordinary example this week. Keep the change only if it reduces searching, maintenance, or uncertainty.
Apply the idea to one ordinary example this week. Keep the change only if it reduces searching, maintenance, or uncertainty.
A closing note
The record is not there to prove you were right. It is there to improve the next judgment and show when circumstances have changed.
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